The hottest oil price has resumed its upward trend

2022-08-17
  • Detail

The price of WTI crude oil futures expiring in June on the New York Mercantile Exchange once broke through the $60 per barrel mark in early trading on the 12th, hitting a new high in nearly six months. The international oil price has increased by 80% since the low point

international oil prices may have entered the rising channel

domestic institutions have different explanations for the continuous rise of oil prices. The most important factor is the improvement of U.S. macroeconomic data, leading to the recovery of market confidence. Guojingpu, a researcher at Cinda securities, said that the driving force for the rise in oil prices mainly came from the fact that the U.S. unemployment rate met expectations, while other major economic indicators showed signs of stabilization to varying degrees, which led to the recovery of confidence in the U.S. economy in the crude oil market. On May 13, the crude oil inventory released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) fell for the first time in 10 weeks, which will form an important stimulus to the market. In addition to affirming the macro data factors, Fang Lei, a researcher at industrial securities, believes that the gradual weakening of the US dollar is also a major driver of the rise in oil prices

although there are signs of stabilization in macro data, the world financial crisis is still spreading, and it is difficult for oil demand to recover rapidly in the short term. What will be the interpretation of oil prices in the international market in the medium and long term? In this regard, most research institutions judge that oil prices continue to fluctuate upward. Zhou Xiaofei, a researcher at Shanghai Securities, said that in the medium and long term, oil prices in the international market will be volatile. Inflation, tight supply and speculative capital will drive oil prices to rebound in the future

Zhou Xiaofei made an analysis based on the history of the US dollar since 1970 and the performance of the US dollar during the previous economic recessions since 1929. The monetary and fiscal policies of the US government to save the economy will inevitably lead to the depreciation of the US dollar. Although the current U.S. government can maintain a strong dollar in the short term by suppressing the prices of oil, gold and other commodities, the depreciation of the dollar is a necessary condition to save the U.S. economy. In the medium and long term, the depreciation of the US dollar is an inevitable trend. Once the US dollar returns to the depreciation channel, the international oil price will return to the rising channel. In 2009, the thermoplastic polyurethane particles developed by it have good utilization prospects in high-end runways, volleyball courts, badminton courts, preschool education floors, etc. the international oil price will fluctuate in the range of $40 to $80 in 2009, and a sharp rebound in oil prices may occur in the fourth quarter of 2009

Guo Jingpu judged that the expected rebound in consumption will start the main rise in crude oil prices. In the early stage, the economic data to suppress the rise of crude oil prices include the main economic indicators of the United States, while the data related to crude oil itself are inventory and expected consumption. At present, the main economic indicators of the United States have stabilized, and inventory has begun to decline. It is expected that the recovery of consumption will become the factor for the final transformation, maintaining the upward trend of crude oil prices in the next 4-5 months, and maintaining the forecast price of $68-80/barrel. Wu Ying, an analyst at Guodu securities, put forward a different view. He believed that the oil price of $60 in the short term did not match the downstream demand and macro-economy, and the risk of oil price fluctuations was high. Moreover, he told red weekly that the price offered by major international investment banks for strong chlorine resistance and UV resistance is still in the range of $50-58, which will greatly affect the market's long sentiment

domestic refined oil price adjustment is expected to be strong

the national development and Reform Commission issued the "measures for the administration of oil prices (Trial)" on May 8, which further refined the adjustment method of domestic refined oil prices. The measures stipulates that when the moving average price of crude oil in the international market changes by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be adjusted accordingly

with the continuous rise of oil prices and the introduction of new measures, domestic oil prices are expected to rise strongly. Qiu Xiaofeng, a researcher at China Merchants Securities, told red weekly that at the time of the last price adjustment, the moving average price of crude oil on the 22nd was roughly between $44 and $45. Generally, some physical samples such as steel bars and wire rods do not need to be processed and maintain their full cross-section for experiments. At present, it has reached more than $52/barrel. According to the current price adjustment mechanism, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil is expected to be in the near future. Jiang Jiemin, chairman of PetroChina, also admitted at the 2008 annual general meeting on Tuesday that according to the new product oil pricing mechanism and the latest 22 day moving average crude oil price, the domestic product oil price should be increased by 500 yuan/ton

pay attention to the investment opportunities of relevant beneficiary companies

how to participate in the investment market of petrochemical enterprises. Investors are very concerned about the question "which is the stronger or the weaker of petrochemical companies"? Qiu Xiaofeng first promoted Sinopec. He further explained the reasons for being optimistic about PetroChina: first, as long as the oil price is above $50, the performance in the second quarter is better than that in the first quarter, and the performance in the third quarter is better than that in the second quarter, which is basically determined; 2、 Shareholder structure with more retail investors and fewer institutions; 3、 Optimistic about oil prices, rising oil prices, PetroChina's performance flexibility is greater than Sinopec. At the current price, PetroChina has a buying value. But he prefers Sinopec. First, the lower valuation is 25% lower than the share price of PetroChina, but the real performance is much higher than PetroChina, and the valuation is a little more reliable than the trend; Second, he is cautious about short-term oil prices. Although the oil price is expected to reach $65-70 by the end of the year, the oversupply in the short-term spot market will overwhelm the expectations of inflation and economic recovery, and there is a risk of correction

Zhang Yangjian, a researcher at Great Wall Securities, divided the industries that benefited from the rise in oil prices into direct and indirect benefits. Among them, the direct beneficiaries are mainly oil exploration industry, oil equipment manufacturing and oil transportation industry. CNOOC service, COOEC and CITIC Haizhi deserve attention

as a substitute for oil, the coal industry benefits indirectly and will form a strong support for the current trend of coal prices. He is optimistic about SDIC Xinji, open-pit coal industry and Lu'an Huanneng. At the same time, it also brings benefits to new energy enterprises such as new energy vehicles, power battery production, wind energy, solar energy and biomass. It is suggested to pay attention to Foton Motor, Ankai bus, keliyuan, Xiangdian Co., Ltd., Huayi Electric and Yinxing energy

in addition, the rise in crude oil prices has brought cost pressure to the petrochemical industry, but chemical enterprises using coal as raw materials will benefit. With the rise of oil prices, chemical enterprises using coal as raw materials will gradually show their cost advantages over chemical enterprises using oil and natural gas as raw materials, especially those producing PVC, DMF, BDO and other chemical products. Hualu Hengsheng, Jiangshan Co., Ltd., Yaxing chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, yinglite, Jinlu group, Zhongtai chemical, Shanxi sanwei and Yuanxing energy are the main beneficiaries. However, Zhang's apparent consumption of domestic crude steel has declined year by year since 2014. Yang Jian also reminded that the share prices of some of the above-mentioned companies rose significantly in the early stage, and they need to wait for the correction to absorb at a low price

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI