The hottest oil price may fluctuate around $50 a b

2022-08-16
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Oil prices may fluctuate around $50 a barrel

NYMEX crude oil futures prices have experienced a sharp rebound, and there has been a large shock again. On March 30, under the pressure of the sharp rebound of the US dollar index, oil prices fell and closed directly below US $50/barrel. After a short shock, the oil price soared by 8.78% on April 2 and returned to above $50/barrel, which was mainly due to the G20's agreement to provide a total of $1.1 trillion to the International Monetary Fund and other institutions to help the global economy get rid of the severe recession, which stimulated investors' expectations of a faster economic recovery, thereby stimulating confidence in energy demand

beneficial factor

1. The shear force should be parallel to the sheared plane; 1. At the press conference held after the G20 summit, British Prime Minister gordonbrown said that the leaders of the G20 agreed to provide a total of $1.1 trillion to multilateral financial institutions such as the IMF and the world bank, of which the fund size of the International Monetary Fund will be expanded by three times from $250billion to $750billion to help troubled countries. Whether this large-scale rescue plan can wake up the economic recovery will directly affect the consumption of crude oil

2. The crude oil supply of OPEC and non OPEC major oil producing countries has decreased substantially. OPEC reached an agreement to reduce production by 4.2 million barrels a day in September last year to stop the decline in oil prices. At present, member states have implemented nearly 80%. According to the latest Reuters survey, OPEC member States implemented the production reduction agreement to 79% in March, the seventh consecutive month of OPEC output decline. According to the recent forecast of oil movements, a British consultancy, OPEC's seaborne crude oil exports excluding Angola and Ecuador will fall by 960000 barrels in the four weeks to April 18. In addition, the implementation of the production reduction plan by major oil producing countries will also provide some support for the stable oil price of $50/barrel with the supply capacity of key materials for major aviation equipment

negative factors

1. Inventory is under pressure again. According to the data released on March 1 by eia4 under the U.S. Department of energy, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.8 million barrels to 359.4 million barrels in the week ended March 27, less than the 3.3 million barrels released by the American Petroleum Association (API) on March 31, but still greater than the median estimate of 2.3 million barrels by 13 analysts participating in the Dow Jones survey. The substantial increase in inventory is due to the recent increase in imports. In the early stage, when the oil price was low, a large number of oil storage vessels had been floating at sea, waiting for the oil price to rebound before throwing them into the market. This is bound to lead to a large number of spot goods in the improvement of product quality arriving at the port and entering the warehouse after the oil price returns to the top of $50/barrel, which will make the inventory rise to an all-time high again

2. Bad economic data. According to the report released by the U.S. Department of labor on April 2, the number of initial jobless claims in the week of March 27 further increased the industrial concentration to a 26 year high, and the total number of applications reached a record high, which depressed investor confidence. In addition, in the near future, the market will successively announce various economic indicators in March. According to the current situation, the situation is not optimistic

technical analysis

to sum up, the author believes that the current oil market is intertwined with long and short news. Before the weak fundamentals are not greatly improved, the price will remain around $50/barrel, with a wide range of fluctuations

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