The hottest oil price hit a record high, and the p

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Oil prices hit record highs, oil refining and petrochemical industry profits were squeezed

after the high crude oil price entered the fourth quarter, winter heating oil, US dollar interest rate cut, climate, OPEC capacity adjustment plan, inventory and other factors will affect the fluctuation of crude oil prices. We believe that the international crude oil price is more likely to fluctuate sharply in the fourth quarter, with a fluctuation space of 60 ~ 90 US dollars/barrel. The new energy industry deserves attention. In August, the state successively issued the industrial standard of dimethyl ether for urban use and the natural gas utilization policy for low-cost and fake aluminum alloy cables. Among them, the project for urban use has been supported by the "hundred talents plan" project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the financial support of cooperative enterprises. The dimethyl ether industry standard is expected to be implemented from January 1, 2008, and the natural gas utilization policy has been officially promulgated and implemented on August 30, 2007

the introduction of the above two policies will be conducive to the long-term development of the coal based alcohol ether industry, raise the threshold of the natural gas chemical industry for domestic experimental machines, and be beneficial to the established natural gas chemical enterprises. It is suggested that investors can focus on the following three types of Companies: first, natural gas extraction enterprises, such as Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC; Second, gas head fertilizer enterprises, such as Yuntianhua, Lutianhua, etc; Third, enterprises in the new energy industry, such as Yuanxing energy and Guanghui Co., Ltd., are still in an important strategic opportunity period of development

there are few bright spots in the recent industry investment. From the perspective of the change in the prosperity of the industry, the price of crude oil rises, and the prosperity of the natural gas and oil exploitation industry increases, but the gross profit margin of the refining industry will be damaged; With the expansion of ethylene cracking unit, the prosperity of basic petrochemical products is declining. In the downstream chemical industry, except for TDI, MDI and a few other industries with high prosperity, there are not many bright spots. With the reduction of winter storage and export tax rates, the export of chemical fertilizers is expected to usher in a peak, thereby easing the pressure on domestic supply. Viscose fibers in the chemical fiber industry still maintain a high profile and can continue to be concerned

investment strategy in this period: mainly defensive. With the continuous rise of the index, many stocks are overestimated to a certain extent, and the market risks are getting bigger and bigger. We believe that defensive strategies should be adopted as a whole to avoid the high volatility risk of the market

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