The hottest oil price policy and inventory factors

2022-08-09
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Oil price policy and inventory factors have boosted the price of chemical products

since August, the price of chemical products has continued to rise on a large scale due to rising oil prices, energy conservation and emission reduction, and corporate and social inventories

data show that the chemical market experienced "high temperature" in August. Among the 68 chemical products under key monitoring, 43 showed rising prices and 13 remained flat, accounting for 82.35% in total; Among the 20 rubber and plastic products under key monitoring, 17 have increased prices and 2 have remained flat, accounting for 95% in total. The popularity of the chemical market remained unchanged in September. Among the 68 chemical products under key monitoring, 33 have increased in price and 24 have remained unchanged, accounting for 83.8% in total; Among the 20 rubber and plastic products under key monitoring, 15 have increased prices and 3 have been held, accounting for 90% in total. Since October, chemical products have continued to rise in a large area and got rid of the downturn in May and June. Comparing the price on October 15 with that on August 2, among the 68 chemical products under key monitoring, 57 have increased in price and 4 have remained unchanged, accounting for 89.7% in total; Among the 20 rubber and plastic products under key monitoring, 18 have increased prices and 1 has remained flat, accounting for 95% in total

in the past three months, products with a price increase of more than 20% include sulfuric acid, liquid chlorine, epichlorohydrin, stearic acid, bromine, bisphenol A, cyclohexanone, n-butanol, soda ash, caustic soda, ethylene glycol, CIS polybutadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, natural rubber, etc. Among them, sulfuric acid ranked first with an increase of 43.33%. Comparing the price on October 15 with the beginning of the year, hydrofluoric acid, HFC, bisphenol A, tetrabromobisphenol A, fluorite powder, bromine, stearic acid, sulfur, ethylene glycol, hexafluoropropylene, industrial naphthalene, polysilicon, PTA, PMMA, pet, styrene butadiene rubber, etc. increased by more than 30%. Hydrofluoric acid ranked first with an increase of 84%. Industry data shows that the prices of individual products are close to or have reached record highs, including phosphate rock, ABS plastic, PTA, natural rubber, bromine, BDO, etc

three factors boost prices:

the reasons for the rise in the price of chemical products can be understood from the two main lines of rising oil prices and energy conservation and emission reduction. The former leads to rising costs and stimulates the price rise of downstream chemical products, while the latter leads to a reduction in supply due to the shutdown of some production capacity in the process of implementation. Since the beginning of this year, international crude oil has maintained the trend of range shock, which is between USD/barrel. Although the oversupply of crude oil did not support the sharp rise in international crude oil, crude oil futures rose to $83/barrel after October, boosted by the depreciation of the US dollar. According to the historical data of recent years, crude oil will generally experience a rising market from October to January of the next year. The reason is that during this period of time, the northern hemisphere enters winter, the demand for heating oil increases, the enthusiasm of refineries for refining is high, and the demand for crude oil increases. However, the supply of crude oil does not increase correspondingly. It is expected that in the next three months, there is a high possibility of international crude oil shocks, and the main shock range will rise to between US dollars/barrel

in the process of energy conservation and emission reduction, due to the strong rigidity of the policy, local governments must complete it. In some places, there has been a forced shutdown of production capacity, in case it also affects the chemical industry. Experts said that in order to complete the task of energy conservation and emission reduction, some chemical production capacities in some provinces have been forcibly shut down without distinguishing between advanced and backward. Industry insiders said that typical products with rising prices affected by energy conservation and emission reduction include nitrogen fertilizer, phosphoric acid, soda ash, calcium carbide, PVC and other major chemical products

the more critical reason for the rise in the price of chemical products is that the product price has fallen to the extent that it is difficult to continue to fall. The traders who are most sensitive to the market have seen this, and began to increase inventory and promote the price rise, thus driving downstream enterprises to replenish inventory and further promote the price rise. Previously, the market was unanimously worried that overcapacity would suppress product prices, and the market remained depressed. However, "no one will do business at a loss", the chemical industry was widely used, and the operating rate of enterprises fell, thus reversing the supply and demand pattern of the industry. Analysts believe that traders have the same performance as key components such as industrial robot precision reducers, servo electromechanical and controllers for the rise in the price of chemicals, which can promote the further rise of prices when the product price rises. On the contrary, traders will also help the decline when the market is down

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