The hottest oil price is unlikely to break through

2022-08-09
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There is no hope that the oil price will break through the top formed since November 2008

after the oil price reached a record high of more than $147/barrel in July last year, it has fallen sharply, and the decline has not decreased so far, so OPEC is trying to support the oil price. There are more and more signs that OPEC is increasing its production reduction

according to the data of oil movements, a British tanker tracking agency, OPEC crude oil exports will fall to 22.76 million barrels per day in the four weeks ended March 14, down 400000 barrels per day from the level in the first four weeks ended February 14 at the 2015 China International graphene Innovation Conference held in Qingdao a few days ago

OPEC is implementing its production reduction resolution, so the output of the member countries of the organization has been declining in the past few weeks. In December last year, on the basis of the previous two production cuts totaling 2million barrels per day, OPEC further reduced production by 2.2 million barrels per day, setting the production target of its 11 member countries subject to quotas (except Iraq) at 24.85 million barrels per day. According to oil trends last week, OPEC will fully implement its production reduction target of 4.2 million barrels per day by the end of April

Saudi Arabia has been taking the lead in reducing production. As early as January, the country said that if it proved necessary to restore the balance of supply and demand in the market by reducing production, Saudi Arabia was ready to unilaterally reduce production

in addition to Saudi Arabia, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) of the United Arab Emirates also said that it would cut its supply of four crude oils by 15% to 17% in April, a decrease of more than 10% to 15% in March, in order to comply with its OPEC production target

Kuwait is also known to have some Japanese customers, saying that the reduction in the number of crude oil contracts in April will remain at 5%. According to market sources, the supply of Algeria, Angola and Libya fell in OPEC member countries with small production. A source close to Sonatrach said that Algeria had cut crude oil exports by 200000 barrels per day. Customers importing crude oil from Libya also found that the crude oil supply has decreased in the past two months, including es sider crude oil, which has decreased compared with the previous period

shipping sources also said that they were affected by OPEC's production reduction, especially the demand for tankers exporting crude oil from the Arabian Gulf. During the period from January to November last year, an average of 110 crude oil shipments were loaded from the Arabian Gulf every month. However, since OPEC began to actively implement the production reduction in December last year, the number has fallen to only about 97 shipments per month. Some shipping companies said that the number of shipments in March may be further reduced, with only 29 so far

although OPEC is about to hold another meeting on March 15, the cartel has not yet sent a clear signal about whether it is possible to further reduce production, or whether it is inclined to further improve the current implementation of ISO 6502 production reduction. Algerian Oil Minister Khalil said on March 1 that due to the declining demand, OPEC agreed to further reduce production "is very likely". He said that the economic crisis has hit the demand for all commodities, including oil, which has led to a decline of 1.2 million barrels per day

however, during this period, Iranian oil minister nouzari said that there was still doubt whether a new resolution on production reduction would eventually be made at the OPEC meeting held on March 15. Nuzari said he hoped that OPEC would focus on the economic prospects of 2009 and 20 years with intensity>4cn/dtex 10 at the upcoming meeting. He said, "I don't think we will reduce production again. We should adopt a mechanism to correct the price."

although OPEC has achieved some results in complying with its production reduction commitments, the impact of the financial crisis and economic slowdown has not been fully released, and the oil price is unlikely to exceed the top (US $50/barrel) formed since November 2008

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