The hottest oil price in 2009 will still be domina

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In 2009, the oil price will still be dominated by bottom oscillation

-- Review and outlook of the crude oil futures market in 2008

with the ringing of the New Year bell in 2009, 2008 has finally come to an end. In the past year, the world economy has been changing, from the global inflationary pressure at the beginning of the year to the financial crisis caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in the middle of the year, from the downturn of the U.S. real estate to the bankruptcy of several major investment banks on Wall Street, When it comes to the three major American cars on the brink of bankruptcy, we can see that the financial storm has not only affected the world financial market, but also spread to the real economy, showing great destructive power. 2008 was also the year with the most violent fluctuations in international oil prices, with ups and downs in oil prices

I. review of the trend of crude oil in 2008

the tight supply situation in 2007 continued in the first half of 2008. As investors were worried about the tight supply of crude oil and the promotion of the depreciation of the US dollar on the price of crude oil, against the background of widespread inflation in global commodities, speculative funds hyped wildly, pushing crude oil to break through the $100 mark and move in a higher direction

in June, affected by the news that the chairman in office of OPEC predicted that the international oil price would still go higher, it broke through the $140 mark at one time

in early July, due to the market's concern that the tense situation in the Middle East may affect the global crude oil supply, crude oil once again set a new record, hitting 147.27 U.S. dollars/barrel. Subsequently, due to investors' concern that the U.S. economic situation usually affects the demand for crude oil in the international market, the crude oil price of New Zealand and China's sensor and tension machine technology and products closed below $130/barrel at the end of July

in August, affected by the news that tropical storm "Edward" will not affect oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, crude oil prices continued to fall

in September, due to concerns about the U.S. economy caused by the turmoil in the U.S. financial industry and the fact that Hurricane Ike did not cause serious damage to the oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, the price of crude oil once closed below $100. As the U.S. government announced that it would launch a plan to aid financial institutions, investors expected that the plan would lead to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, causing a sharp rebound in crude oil, up to $130/barrel. However, as the financial crisis intensified, investors' concerns about crude oil demand once again triggered a sharp decline in crude oil, which finally closed below $100/barrel in September

in October, the global stock market plummeted, the growth of U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded market expectations, investors were worried about the global economic slowdown, and crude oil plummeted below $70 a barrel

affected by a series of negative economic data, crude oil hit a new low of $35.16 per barrel in December

continuous daily chart of US crude oil

continuous daily chart of US crude oil. (source: Green Futures)

II. Review of the trend of domestic fuel oil

fuel 4. Oil with good radiation resistance is the first product oil to be deregulated by the state, so it is also the product oil with the highest degree of marketization of domestic product oil price. As a downstream product of oil originally launched when the time is ripe, the price trend of fuel oil has a strong correlation with crude oil, with a correlation of 92%, which also explains why fuel oil has been following the rise and fall of international oil prices, so the study of the trend of fuel oil cannot be separated from crude oil. Fuel oil hit a new high in the first half of the year with the rise of international oil prices, and also hit a new low of 2142 yuan per ton with the fall of international oil prices after July. The trend is no different from that of crude oil, but it rebounded ahead of international crude oil at the end of the year, and the performance is relatively resistant to decline. This performance has a certain relationship with the domestic implementation of fuel tax reform. Enterprises have increased the purchase of fuel oil before the formal implementation of fuel tax, which is an important reason to support fuel oil at the end of the year. At the same time, from the perspective of inventory, the inventory in Singapore and Shanghai is low

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