Baosteel's main plates again shouted "up" in April, and the analysis said that the main reason was the full order
on March 8, Baosteel, as the "weathervane" of the steel industry, took the lead in issuing the price adjustment information in April. To the surprise of the outside world, Baosteel once again raised its price by 120 yuan to 200 yuan/ton for major plate varieties. Among them, the direct subordinate of cold rolling increased by 150 yuan/ton, the current cold rolling coil increased by 4820 yuan/ton, and the permeable concrete allowed rainwater to freely penetrate and penetrate the underground. Meigang increased by 100 yuan/ton, excluding tax, which has been implemented since March 8
daily economy learned that this is the fifth time that Baosteel has raised its ex factory price since December 2012, and the cumulative increase of some varieties has reached 750 yuan/ton. Among the steel mills that released price adjustment information in the past week, 88.6% chose to reduce the steel price, and some steel mills adjusted preferential measures such as transportation and compensation even if they did not reduce the price
industry analysts pointed out that the sharp rise of Baosteel was due to the full confidence brought by its full orders, which may be difficult for other steel mills to follow. At present, it is even more difficult to have a sharp rise in the market. Therefore, after the sharp rise of Baosteel, the spot market is difficult to "Parry" with the rise, and can only withstand the pressure of the continued upward cost of finished materials
the recovery of downstream demand is the reason for price adjustment
the data released by the National Bureau of statistics shows that 24. With the permission of the test pieces, in January 2013, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly month on month and year on year. In that month, a total of 1.9645 million vehicles were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 51.17%; The sales volume was 2.0345 million, with a year-on-year increase of 46.38%, and both of them set a record high for the production and sales volume in a single month. At the same time, the data of household appliances are also more optimistic. In January, the output of air conditioners was 8.87 million units, and the sales volume was 8.98 million units, an increase of 61.91% and 29.17% respectively
"the production and sales of household appliances and automobile industries have increased significantly, showing that the demand for plate products, especially cold-rolled series, is good. The growth rate of railway fixed investment has also increased significantly." Wang Bei, an analyst at my iron and Steel Research Center, said
according to the data CRU study released by the Ministry of Railways on February 16, the fixed investment of the railway in January was 20.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%, of which the infrastructure investment was 14.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.3%
Wang Bei pointed out, "as the weather warms up, most downstream manufacturers have been in normal production. The urban rail transit, port and other projects approved by the national development and Reform Commission last year will also usher in the construction peak. The downstream demand of the steel industry is expected to rebound moderately, which has become one of the reasons supporting Baosteel's increase in ex factory prices."
in the interview, many market traders said that although Baosteel has continuously raised prices in the past few months, there is still room for increase compared with the spot increase. For the reasons behind Baosteel's price adjustment, more people believe that it is related to exports and operating rates. Data show that China's export performance from January to February is relatively strong and is expected to continue in the short term, and the strong export performance will give Baosteel confidence in raising prices again
in addition, people close to Baosteel learned that Baosteel's orders have been excellent in recent months, and some varieties such as cold-rolled automobile steel have even been "out of stock". In this regard, analysts said, "Baosteel's rise this time is indeed surprising. This sharp rise in Baosteel is only the full confidence brought by its full orders, and other steel mills may be difficult to follow."
the spot market in the later stage may be difficult to follow.
"Baosteel's price increase will boost the market confidence that has been severely hit by the introduction of the five articles of the State Council on real estate and its detailed rules recently. With the release of demand and the increase of steel plant maintenance and production reduction, the spear between supply and demand in the steel market in the later stage is expected to be alleviated to a certain extent." Wang Bei pointed out the impact on the later steel market
note that for the current spot market with high output and high stock in the market, in this environment where downstream demand is difficult to see a substantial improvement and market inventory needs to be digested for a long time, does it mean that the mainstream steel mills will take the lead in raising prices, which will release the signal of the spot market rising
in this regard, industry analysts believe that it is simply more difficult to have a sharp rise in the current spot market. After the sharp rise of Baosteel this time, the performance of the spot market is difficult to "Parry" and follow the rise, which can only withstand the pressure of the continued upward cost of finished materials and weak consolidation
if the spot market does not follow the rise, will "weathervane" Baosteel affect how other mainstream steel mills bid? In this regard, Wang Bei pointed out, "the ex factory prices of some steel mills with good orders are expected to rise in April, but for steel mills with insufficient orders, it is unlikely to rise, or they may be flat or slightly reduced." (daily 1. Maximum experimental torque: ly10nm, 20nm, 50nm, 100nm, 200nm economic)